While battling its worst COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic, China’s zero-COVID strategy has come under scrutiny. Looking at examples of Shanghai and other virus hubs, this CiCM Insight highlights what is at stake for Xi Jinping politically.

  • China is dealing with a rise of COVID-19 cases in at least 19 provinces, putting the government's dedication to reducing infections at all costs to the test. As most of the world continues to lift pandemic restrictions, the spike and attendant lockdowns, which might severely affect the economy, may push the government to reconsider its approach to the virus. According to health officials, 12,000 new cases have been registered in the last three days alone, and the country's defences are now confronting the highly transmissible Omicron subvariant BA.2 for the first time.

  • As the number of daily cases surpassed 4,400, Shanghai, China's most populated city and its financial hub, intensified the first phase of a two-stage Covid-19 lockdown on Tuesday, requiring some citizens to stay home barring visits to be tested. Reports of millions struggling to feed themselves, elderly unable to access medicine, videos of small riots breaking out, killing of pets post owners testing positive and separation of families have been circulating on social media. Many households appear to be relying on inadequate government food deliveries as China grapples with its worst COVID outbreak since 2020. Drones are being used to fly over Shanghai and tell people to obey quarantine rules. The drones are accompanied by robot dogs that patrol the streets telling residents to 'wear a mask, wash your hands, check your temperature'.

  • China’s controversial ‘Zero-COVID strategy’ is now facing the symptoms of wear and tear. China has implemented its tried-and-tested methods of disease control: placing tens of millions of people on lockdown, closing factories in the tech hub of Shenzhen, erecting makeshift hospitals to isolate cases in hard-hit Jilin province, and rounding up "close contacts" of cases for surveillance or quarantine. There was massive outrage on social media when young children who tested positive for COVID-19 were separated from their parents at an infant quarantine station in Shanghai's Jinshan District, irrespective of whether parents tested positive for Covid-19 or not. Even as the policy has now been revised, the ripple effect on international media continues –especially in the West –amidst persevering anger towards China for the onset of the pandemic and current failure by Beijing to condone Russian invasion of Ukraine.

  • As the situation worsened, Shanghai's public health efforts were expanded. After denying for days that it had any preparations for a citywide lockdown, the administration declared on March 27 that it would implement a phased lockdown, beginning with one half of the city and then moving to the other. The government then abandoned its staggered strategy by March 31, essentially imposing a citywide lockdown on all 25 million citizens, who were prohibited from leaving their homes unless to be tested. Officials reported that the mandated citywide testing revealed a spike in cases, leading them to prolong the lockdown until further notice. According to state media and the PLA, more than 30,000 doctors and 2,000 military personnel have been rushed to the city to implement these restrictions and satisfy the demands of the locked-down populace.

  • Except for critical labour and emergency services, residents of Changchun, Jilin City, Shenzhen, and Dongguan are prohibited from leaving their communities. Every two to three days, each home is only permitted to send one person to do grocery shopping. Langfang, the fifth city, went a step further by preventing all people from leaving their houses unless it was for an emergency. Several of these communities have shut down schools, stopped public transportation, and are performing repeated rounds of mass testing for all citizens. On Tuesday, the city of Jilin began its ninth round of testing, with photographs showing citizens lined up outside in the snow.. Residents of Jilin province are also prohibited from leaving the province or moving between cities within the province due to travel restrictions.

  • Shenzhen is also home to one of the world's busiest container ports, and any interruption there could wreak havoc on an already overburdened global supply system. Last summer, diseases among dock workers prompted the Yantian port in Shenzhen to close for over a week, resulting in a significant backlog of cargo that took months to clear and a rise in global freight prices. So far, the port has remained operational. Every day, 36,000 20-foot containers are filled in Yantian, a port roughly 50 miles north of Hong Kong. After diseases were discovered among dock employees, it was shut down for over a week late last month. While the port has reopened, it is still functioning at a fraction of its capacity, resulting in a massive backlog of containers and ships waiting to dock. Yantian's bottleneck has spread to Guangdong's other container ports, including Shekou, Chiwan, and Nansha. They're all at Shenzhen or Guangzhou, the world's fourth and fifth biggest comprehensive container ports, respectively. The global shipping sector is facing a tremendous challenge as a result of the domino effect. Last Monday, Maersk, the world's largest container shipping company and vessel operator, informed clients that ships might be delayed for at least 16 days in Yantian. Meanwhile, shipping behemoths Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY), Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and Cosco Shipping (CHDGF) have all raised cargo prices between Asia and North America or Europe.

  • All businesses in Shenzhen, except those that supply food, fuel and other necessities were ordered to close or work from home. Foxconn, one of Apple's most important suppliers, has halted operations in Shenzhen as China shuts down the technological centre and several other areas to manage the country's largest Covid-19 epidemic in two years. Those businesses considered necessary or engaged in supplying Hong Kong are left open.

  • Despite widespread support for authorities' prompt reaction to outbreaks, a considerable number of locals have expressed their fears and anxiety on China's closely monitored and regulated social media sites. The local media has reported delays in the city's major hospitals, which require patients to pass negative tests before being admitted. According to a screenshot of one post that went viral before being removed, a guy and his ailing father were turned away from a Xi'an hospital because they were from a high-risk neighbourhood. A mother in labour lost her baby after being denied entry to a Xi'an hospital, according to another social media source.

  • The latest wave of infections occurred just weeks after Beijing hosted the Winter Olympics, with considerable care taken to ensure that the event did not result in a fresh wave of infections. Chinese officials have cited the country's triumph against the virus in comparison to other nations as proof of the Chinese system's superiority under Xi's leadership. From January 17 to February 25, 2022, the Chinese Spring Festival travel surge also took place. Chinese people travel to see their family during the Chinese Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival, which happened on February 1, 2022, during the 40-day travel season, also known as Chunyun. Cross-regional travel increased in tandem with the Spring Festival travel surge, resulting in a difficult epidemic prevention and control scenario, according to the National Health Commission (NHC).

  • Last week, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who described the epidemic as the "greatest challenge" the Chinese economy has faced during his second term, committed to grow the economy by 5.5 percent, a lofty goal in the face of global trade disruptions and weak domestic demand. On 21st March, Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Tech index fell by 5% due to concerns about the economy.

  • Information about Covid-related issues from China is frequently missing. China, for example, does not provide data on excess mortality, a standard statistic that the United Nations refers to as the "preferred measure" for analysing the disease's impact on a specific community. As a result, China is excluded from scientific research on Covid mortality. China, in fact, consistently refuses to cooperate with practically all requests from international organisations and academics for Covid-related data. Cooperation is not always forthcoming, but it is extremely difficult. The information embargo imposed by China has hampered investigations into the pandemic's origins and evolution, and is currently hindering our understanding of the efficiency of alternate countermeasures.

  • Based on the official numbers given by Beijing, there are at least two main points that suggest manipulation, denial, and even fabrication of data linked to Covid mortality in China. Despite the continued spread of the virus and tens of thousands of reported instances of Covid infection, the most striking "gap" in official Chinese statistics is the full cessation of all recorded Covid fatalities in Mainland China after April 2020. The second point is that China publishes the population's overall mortality rate. China's crude mortality rate increased modestly in the decade leading up to 2018, suggesting an ageing population.
  • It is important to remember that the Zero-COVID policy is open to regional variations. Moving towards co-existence –as countries across the world have done –with the virus is a possibility, but the present focus remains on curbing the rise in cases completely.

  • Overall, the severity of public health measures and political pressure on local leaders to persist with the zero-CODID policy creates a highly charged political atmosphere in China. The perceived success or failure of the zero-COVID policy among Chinese citizens will majorly influence public support for Xi Jinping’s expected third term in office after October 2022.

 

Author

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Samikshya Das

Samikshya Das is a former research intern at Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA), New Delhi, India. Samikshya has finished her Master's in International Studies from Symbiosis International University. She has a bachelor's degree in law and she is interested in Indian Foreign Policy and Indian political Research.

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Economy Party Politics and Governance

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