THE INTELLIGENCE FRONT IN THE US-CHINA COMPETITION

The CIA’s China Gambit

US-China intelligence competition is intensifying, with the CIA’s recent targeted recruitment efforts signaling a deepening struggle for strategic advantage. As Washington seeks to exploit internal vulnerabilities within China’s security apparatus, Beijing has simultaneously reinforced its counterintelligence framework. However, these efforts unfold amid increasing structural constraints on US intelligence capabilities. Policy shifts under the Trump administration risk weakening the institutional depth required for sustained clandestine operations. Consequently, the effectiveness of current US strategies remains uncertain, raising questions about whether they reflect long-term intelligence strategy or symbolic pressure in an enduring intelligence rivalry.

 
Image name
CHINA’S 2026 GOVERNMENT WORK REPORT

Key Takeaways

China’s 2026 Government Work Report (GWR), presented by Premier Li Qiang at the Two Sessions, outlines Beijing’s strategy to manage the deceleration of China's economy, while advancing long-term structural transformation. Setting a GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, the report emphasizes a shift toward high-quality development, boosting domestic demand, and addressing deflationary pressures through more proactive fiscal and monetary support. It positions innovation and the development of new quality productive forces, including AI and advanced technologies, to enhance competitiveness and self-reliance. At the same time, the GWR highlights rural revitalization, social welfare expansion, and governance reforms to maintain stability during China’s economic transition.

 
Image name
CHINA’S STRATEGIC DILEMMA IN THE WEST ASIAN CRISIS

Managing Influence Without Security Commitments

The ongoing West Asian conflict presents a strategic dilemma for China as it seeks to expand its regional influence without assuming security responsibilities. While Beijing has deepened economic ties with Iran and the Gulf through energy trade and Belt and Road connectivity, it continues to avoid direct military or security commitments in the region. China’s response, driven by its energy security concerns, has focused on diplomatic rhetoric, calls for political settlement and limited mediation efforts, reflecting its emphasis on stability without strategic entanglement. However, this cautious approach exposes the limits of China’s influence and highlights a broader tension in its rise as a global power—balancing expanding economic interests without assuming corresponding security responsibilities.

 
Image name
INDIA, CHINA AND THE CONTESTED ARCHITECTURE OF BRICS

The Limits of Institutional Coexistence

As India assumes the BRICS presidency in 2026, the grouping it chairs is considerably larger, more consequential and more internally contested than when it last held the chair in 2021. This piece assesses the nature and depth of India-China divergence across BRICS, particularly on membership expansion, governance of the New Development Bank and approaches to de-dollarisation and alternative payment systems. India's 2026 chairmanship offers real but time-limited agenda-setting authority; how New Delhi uses it will shape not only this presidential cycle but the terms on which China approaches its own chairmanship in 2027.

 
Image name
THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS DISPUTE BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA

History, Competing Sovereignty & Security Dynamics

The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute between Japan, China, and Taiwan reflects unresolved historical legacies of the First Sino-Japanese War, contested post-WWII settlements, and competing legal interpretations of sovereignty and maritime boundaries in the East China Sea. The issue intensified after the 1968 discovery of potential hydrocarbons and Japan’s 2012 nationalization, leading to sustained maritime patrols, legal assertions, and strategic signalling by all sides. Today, the dispute represents not only a territorial disagreement but a broader contest over regional order, alliance politics, sea lane security, and the interpretation of international maritime law in East Asia.

 
Image name
INDIA'S SOFT PUSH FOR POWER IN SOUTH ASIA

Shaping a Favourable Tomorrow

The Special Issue “India’s Soft Push for Power in South Asia: Shaping A Favourable Tomorrow” was ideated keeping in mind the increasing need for Indian policymakers to mitigate challenges emerging against New Delhi’s South Asian policy. Through each chapter, contributed by emerging Indian scholars specializing in India’s neighborhood policy, the publications envisions new and existing strategies to effectively leverage India’s soft power appeal in South Asia. 

 
Image name

Publications

Ranging from op-eds to issue briefs, special reports and more by our Community of senior and junior Scholars

Daily CiCM Newsletters

Subscribers every evening receive crisp insights divided into sections: China’s social media, regional news and an India Watch

Countries Reached

Within an year of inception, ORCA began being accessed and read across continents with consistent readership that has only grown over time

China's Provinces at a glance

Made with the intention of furthering our audience's knowledge, our interactive map will tell you some interesting facts about each province in China.

Autonomous Regions Provinces Municipalities

Latest Publications

Image name
Issue Brief

INDIA, CHINA AND THE CONTESTED ARCHITECTURE OF BRICS


Image name
Reviewing Chinese Culture

ZERO DAY ATTACK- A WARNING SHOT FOR TAIWAN


Image name
Backgrounders

THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS DISPUTE BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA


Image name
Opinion Pieces

THE INTELLIGENCE FRONT IN THE US-CHINA COMPETITION


Write for Write for

ORCA ! ORCA !

Join us in advancing knowledge and fostering meaningful discussions on China and Asia! Check out ORCA's submission guidelines and send us your work.

Get Started

Subscribe now to our newsletter !

Get a daily dose of local and national news from China, top trends in Chinese social media and what it means for India and the region at large.

Please enter your name.
Looks good.
Please enter a valid email address.
Looks good.
Please accept the terms to continue.