CiCM 2nd January 2024

NEWS IN CHINA

China anticipates sustained and steady economic growth in 2024: China's economy is predicted to sustain robust and steady growth in 2024, driven by increased domestic demand supported by macroeconomic policies and industrial upgrading. Consumer spending is expected to be a key growth factor, with a focus on digital economy, green industries, healthcare, and smart homes. Traditional sectors like vehicles and electronics are also set to rebound. Wang Yiming suggests potential fiscal policy support, including moderate increases in debt levels and structural tax cuts. Efforts to promote a modern industrial system are expected to create a positive cycle between consumption and investment. Zhang Xiaoqiang believes China can achieve around 5 percent economic growth in 2024. The Central Economic Work Conference prioritized expanding domestic demand in 2024 through macroeconomic adjustments and effective investment expansion. The economy rebounded in 2023, growing by 5.2 percent in the first three quarters, but demand recovery lagged behind supply. Policymakers aim for a more balanced recovery in 2024, emphasizing demand bolstering and industrial upgrading. Infrastructure investment in technology and carbon reduction is expected to accelerate, while real estate investment stabilizes. The A-share market rallied at the end of 2023, led by new energy and electronics sectors.
Top Chinese universities Tsinghua and others expand public access post-COVID: Tsinghua University has announced plans to expand public access to its campus during weekends and holidays, marking a trend among elite universities reopening after COVID-19 closures. The daily capacity for public registration at Tsinghua will increase by 50 percent to over 12,000 visitors, who will be invited to attend performances, activities, exhibitions, lectures, and sports events. Other renowned universities like Peking University, Zhejiang University, and Wuhan University have also opened their campuses, requiring online registration or ID checks. Renmin University of China will allow public tours with prior registration. The move follows debates on fully reopening campuses and lifting pandemic restrictions. While supporters argue for free access, there are apprehensions regarding the organization and potential exploitation through ticket scalping. Xiong Bingqi, director of the 21st Century Education Research Institute, emphasized the need for a balanced approach, considering faculty, student, and community opinions to maintain a conducive learning environment.
Manzhouli marks historic high with over 5,000 China-Europe freight train journeys in 2023: In 2023, Manzhouli, China's largest land port, witnessed a milestone with 5,001 China-Europe freight train trips, marking a 3 percent increase from 2022 and surpassing the 5,000 mark for the first time in a single year. This achievement reflects a decade-long trend of continuous growth in both the volume of freight train trips and the quantity of transported goods. The China-Europe freight trains, operating through Manzhouli, transported 540,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo, demonstrating a substantial 16 percent year-on-year increase. With 21 China-Europe freight train routes passing through Manzhouli, located in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the port connects 13 countries, including Poland, Germany, and Belgium, to 60 cities in China. The transported cargos encompass a diverse range of 12 major categories, such as daily necessities, industrial machinery, and agricultural products. This accomplishment highlights Manzhouli's vital role in facilitating international trade and its strategic position in fostering connectivity between China and European nations.
China's FAST telescope identifies scintillation arc in fast radio burst: China's Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST), the world's largest single-dish radio telescope, has made a groundbreaking discovery by detecting a scintillation arc in the spectrum of a fast radio burst (FRB) for the first time. FRBs are cosmic radio flashes lasting milliseconds, with their origins still unknown. Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences used FAST to analyse the interstellar scintillation of FRB 20220912A during its active episode in 2022. The scintillation arc suggested ionized interstellar medium as a potential cause, opening new avenues for understanding FRBs and their orbital dynamics. The study, published in Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, details the method for detecting scintillation arcs, applicable to sources with irregular burst patterns. This breakthrough could aid in identifying FRB host galaxies and studying the interstellar medium within the Milky Way. Operational since January 2020, and located in Guizhou Province, the FAST telescope is considered the world's most sensitive radio telescope.
Pudong to fully launch urban village renovation in Central Ring this year: Pudong New Area in Shanghai reported a remarkable achievement in its "Village in the City" renovation project. Xiaowan Village, Tang Town, achieved a 99.8 percent resident signing rate on the project's first day, marking an unprecedented pace in urban village transformation. The project, approved by the Shanghai Municipal Government, moved from approval to expropriation contract signing in just 134 days, surpassing previous records in Pudong's urban village transformations. This initiative is driven by industrial projects, with a focus on aligning with global technological changes, particularly in the artificial intelligence industry. The transformation aims to release nearly 100,000 square meters of industrial land, contributing to the development of the Jingu Intelligent Terminal Characteristic Industrial Park and creating a significant intelligent manufacturing industry cluster. Pudong New Area plans to comprehensively launch urban village transformations in 2024, focusing on areas like Hangtou Hangnan Community and Lianqin Village. The broader goal is to complete the transformation of "two old buildings and one village" by 2028, with a current emphasis on leveraging policy advantages and geographical benefits to support high-quality industrial development and modern urban construction. Pudong New Area has already completed the renovation of large areas and scattered old houses in the central city, benefiting 16,000 residents by the end of 2023.

SOCIAL MEDIA CHATTER IN CHINA

84-year-old 'Sweater Grandma' knits 1,500 jumpers in 15 years, warming China's impoverished children each winter: Han Cuiju, an 84-year-old woman from Ningbo, Zhejiang province, is affectionately known as "sweater grandma" for her decade-and-a-half-long hobby of knitting and donating sweaters to impoverished children. Inspired by a news story about children in poverty-stricken areas lacking warm clothing, Han began knitting in 2005 and has crafted over 1,500 sweaters to date. Her philanthropic efforts extend to various recipients, including the children of migrant workers, disabled individuals, and victims of disasters like earthquakes. Han knits while watching TV at home and carries her wool and needles to knit during free moments outside. Even during hospital stays and holidays, she remains dedicated to her cause, once requesting a drip in her foot to continue knitting. Han's acts of kindness have garnered widespread praise on Chinese social media, where she is affectionately referred to as "sweater grandma,". “This grandma makes winter warmer. Her kindness is touching. I wish her good health and longevity,” said one online observer. Many expressed admirations for her positive energy and long-standing commitment to charity.

INDIA WATCH

In 2023, India emerged as the fastest-growing major economy, achieving a remarkable 6.1 percent GDP expansion in the March quarter and sustaining growth throughout the year. According to OECD projections, India's growth is estimated at 6.3 percent for the year, surpassing China. This resilient performance in the face of global challenges is attributed to India's economic diversity and effective policy measures. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), utilizing its Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, foresees a 6 percent growth rate in the financial year 2024-25. Notably, retail inflation, after peaking at 7.44 percent in July, has been on a downward trajectory, standing at 5.55 percent in November. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das made a pivotal decision to end the rate hike cycle in April 2023, fostering a stable interest rate regime. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate that India's GDP may witness a 6.4 percent growth in the upcoming fiscal year. However, potential drags from interest rate hikes and the global economic slowdown are anticipated. The RBI might consider a rate cut in 2024 if retail inflation remains within the specified 2 to 6 percent band. India's macroeconomic indicators further bolster its position amidst global uncertainties. Foreign exchange reserves exceeding $600 billion and a narrowed current account deficit contribute to the country's favourable standing. The trajectory of India's growth in 2024 will be influenced by geopolitical dynamics, with projections ranging between 6.3 percent and 6.6 percent. India grapples with structural economic challenges like a limited consuming class and unemployment. Post-election, pivotal reforms in labour, land, and agriculture may reshape the economy. The quest for a sovereign rating upgrade faces biases from advanced economies, demanding strategic responses to multifaceted challenges. Navigating India's economic challenges demands a nuanced approach. Balancing worker rights with adaptability, prioritizing skill development, and embracing digital land records and Special Economic Zones can attract investments. Agricultural reforms for income diversification, coupled with targeted support for the consuming class, unemployment mitigation, and diplomatic finesse, set the stage for a sovereign rating upgrade. Vigilant implementation and strategic public awareness are pivotal in reshaping India's economic landscape for inclusive and sustainable growth.

In contrast, China faced economic challenges in 2023 as its property market sagged, leading to a confidence crisis despite mobility normalization. To counter this, policymakers introduced stimulus measures, including a rare issuance of 1 trillion yuan in sovereign debt. Stabilizing the property sector is crucial, with housing sales and investment expected to decline by 40 percent and 20 percent, respectively, by the end of 2023. Policymakers may need additional demand-side measures, such as interest rate cuts, to stabilize prices and boost confidence. Lingering concerns about developers' ability to complete projects add complexity, necessitating government support and debt restructuring. Despite these challenges, manufacturing investment and exports are expected to remain resilient, contributing to a GDP growth projection of 4.5 percent in 2024. Policymakers may target around 5 percent growth, employing increased fiscal measures and focusing on investments, with limited direct consumption stimulus. Effectively resolving the property crisis and restoring private-sector confidence are pivotal challenges for China's economic trajectory, requiring timely and targeted policy measures. Initiatives aimed at fostering a contemporary industrial system are anticipated to generate a beneficial loop connecting consumption and investment in China.

Prepared By

Elias Sebin

Elias Sebin is currently pursuing a Master’s degree in International Relations from South Asian University, New Delhi. His areas of research interest include the geopolitics and social dynamics of the Latin American, West Asian, and African regions as well as gender dynamics and intersectional feminism in South Asia. An avid traveller on a shoestring budget, his short fiction and travelogues have previously been published in several online publications including LiveWire, The Reading Room Co., and Gulmohur Quarterly.