CHINA'S GEOPOLITICAL FOOTPRINT

In March 2023, an agreement brokered by China disrupted the existing dynamics of diplomacy in the Middle East diplomacy and posed a challenge to the established sphere of influence maintained by the United States in the region. Notably, China achieved a significant diplomatic feat by orchestrating a reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two influential Middle Eastern nations with a deeply entrenched history of hostility.

China’s aspirations for greater global influence is reflected in its ‘March West’ policy which extend beyond its existing engagement in Pakistan and further into the Arab world, as it actively seeks direct involvement with Saudi Arabia and Iran, recognising the immense advantages presented by their abundant energy resources and political stability. In light of these developments, this article explores two central questions: Can the newfound camaraderie between Saudi Arabia and Iran be deemed sustainable? Secondly, what does China’s pursuit of engagement with the Middle East indicate?

Riyadh-Tehran Détente: Navigating Through a Rough Reality

Saudi Arabia’s decision to restore diplomatic relations with Iran on March 10, 2023, marks a significant shift in its foreign policy vis a vis Iran which until now was characterized by geopolitical competition, religious differences (Sunni-Shia divide), and proxy conflicts. Factors motivating Riyadh’s pursuit for reconciliation include a deteriorating relationship with the United States; concerns about Iran’s nuclear program following the breakdown of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018; and an opportunity to de-escalate the conflict in Yemen. In this regard, Saudi Arabia hoped that China’s involvement could help address these concerns.

For Iran, the reconciliation with Saudi Arabia aligns with its objectives of reducing regional unrest; countering the progress of the Abraham Accords that normalize relations between Israel and few Arab nations; and minimizing the risk of military confrontation between Iran and Israel. Iran sees Israel as a major adversary and aims to prevent Saudi Arabia from normalizing relations with Israel.

Although the fragility of any Saudi-Iran rapprochement going forward is predicated on shifting domestic politics in both states, it is doubly contingent on external pressures arising from the likes of the Yemeni crisis and the ongoing Israel-Hamas armed conflict. Additionally, the economic viability of any Saudi-Iran detente will rely on stabilising oil prices and attracting foreign investment. As per reports, during their meeting on the sidelines of the joint Arab League-Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) conference in Jeddah on November 11, 2023, Saudi Arabia proposed increased cooperation and economic investment to Iran. However, Iran's political elite chose not to respond to the offer, as it did not align with their political interests in the region. The current geopolitical reality in the Middle East indicates that the progression of Riyadh-Tehran relations is far from seamless. The détente seems more like a surface-level attempt to address the chaotic situation in the region. The truth on the ground starkly differs, with Saudi Arabia and Iran's political and regional interests moving further apart, particularly in the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas war. This prompts questions about the real achievements or objectives of the overly emphasized détente. It also raises considerations about whether the détente primarily aimed at serving narrow interests, especially in safeguarding Chinese interests in the region, while the region's own concerns take a backseat.

Beijing’s Consistent Strategic Maneuvers: Assessing the Outcome

Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, China’s growing engagement with Iran in the Middle East has gained significant attention. A recent development is the signing of a 25-year cooperation agreement between China and Iran, involving substantial Chinese investments in Iran’s energy sector. On the other hand, China’s relationship with Saudi Arabia remains crucial, as it relies on Saudi Arabia as its primary oil supplier. China has been working to strengthen ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, playing a role in facilitating the recent reconciliation between these long-standing adversaries.

China’s interest in this development stems from its broader strategy to establish itself as a prominent global actor. The symbolic significance of a photograph featuring representatives from these three countries is viewed as a significant diplomatic triumph for China. Furthermore, the agreement aligns with China’s interests in securing its energy supply, given that approximately 40-50% of its energy imports originate from the Middle East. In contrast, the United States relies on the region for less than 1 million barrels daily, constituting less than 5% of its total consumption. While a Middle East conflict may have limited implications for the United States, it would pose significant challenges for China as she fears Islamic radicalization and the spillover effect may impact its Xinjiang province and invigorate the Uyghur militants.

The recent accord between Tehran and Riyadh is unlikely to diminish the United States' influence in the region, supported by several factors. Saudi Arabia's dependence on the U.S. military industry persists, and the U.S. plans to bolster its presence with a new testing facility. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiative necessitates multinational involvement, including U.S. capital. Additionally, the U.S. is actively involved in resolving the Yemeni conflict, and Saudi Arabia aligns its position with the U.S. and Israel regarding Iran's nuclear program, considering it a red line. Nevertheless, the agreement enhances China's standing and represents a diplomatic setback for the U.S. The extent of China's influence in ensuring compliance remains uncertain. The long-term impact of the agreement on the underlying conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia remains unclear.

China finds itself in a delicate balance between satisfying its immediate energy requirements in Saudi Arabia and pursuing its long-term strategic interests in fostering reconciliation with Tehran. This balancing act necessitates careful navigation as China endeavours to secure its energy resources while concurrently seeking to build and maintain positive relations with Iran, given the state’s strategic position along China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) routes in the Middle East and North Africa. By prioritising the expansion of infrastructure connectivity projects such as the BRI, China could reinforce a more resilient position within its triangular relationship involving Iran and Saudi Arabia, safeguarding itself against the entanglements other powers have experienced due to the region’s conflict-ridden geopolitics.

The delicate equilibrium China seeks to achieve between Saudi Arabia and Iran is also influenced by the changing dynamics of China’s foreign policy regarding energy, particularly in the context of the global energy transition. China’s ambitious plans outlined in its 14th Five-Year Plan and China’s Vision 2035 prioritise the development of renewable energy capacities, signalling a significant decrease in the role of oil imports in China’s future energy landscape. As energy dependency gradually diminishes, China is poised to shift its focus towards transcontinental trade and infrastructure connectivity.

Therefore, within the context of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement and amidst the ongoing Middle East crisis, China has three primary objectives. Beijing aims to establish a semblance of peace in the Middle East, desires a cessation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and intends to project an image of being a responsible great power. Through the strategic deployment of economic leverage, geopolitical influence, and a steadfast stance against the existing status quo, China aspires to create a broader framework for its sustained growth. Virtually all of Beijing's tentative endeavors in the Arab states and the broader region can be categorized under this overarching objective.

Conclusion

The recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the China-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement, underscore the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the region. This diplomatic feat by China marks a turning point, providing it with a strategic foothold in the Middle East without immediately unseating U.S. influence. The accord raises questions about the future of regional alliances and introduces uncertainties into the established power structures. While the newfound camaraderie between Saudi Arabia and Iran may not immediately diminish U.S. influence, it amplifies China's standing in the region and poses a notable diplomatic setback for the United States.

China's consistent strategic maneuvers, exemplified by the 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran and efforts to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia, demonstrate a comprehensive approach to securing economic leverage and geopolitical influence. As China solidifies its position through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, the Middle East's complex geopolitical landscape remains in flux. The delicate balance China seeks to achieve, balancing domestic pressures, external conflicts, and its energy needs with long-term geopolitical ambitions, adds complexity to the region. The ongoing crisis and China's active involvement further emphasize the need for continuous monitoring to comprehend the potential reshaping of the balance of power in the Middle East.